Weekly Nigeria Stock Market Summary (Week Ending Friday, December 12, 2025)

Market Recap: It was a dynamic week for the Nigerian equities market, with the NGX All-Share Index (ASI) ending higher by 1.36% week-on-week to close at 149,433.23. The year-to-date (YTD) return now sits at a robust 44.83%, indicating continuing bullish undercurrents. Investor sentiment stayed positive amidst increased trading activity—market turnover jumped 26.92%, trade volumes surged 46.45%, and the number of deals climbed 14.28%. Market breadth was healthy, favoring advancers over decliners at a ratio of 1.29x as several stocks, especially within ETFs and growth names, posted exceptional moves. However, pockets of volatility and sharp moves among both gainers and laggards suggest heightened momentum-driven trading and selective sector rotation.

Key Market Trends

• Market Breadth:
  • Breadth ratio at 1.29x (Advancers: 58, Decliners: 45)—a bullish tilt.
  • 32.22% stocks advanced; 25.00% declined; 42.78% unchanged—showing broad participation but with clear winners and losers.
  • Turnover and trade volume surged, hinting at heightened investor participation and a possible distribution phase in segments of the market.
• Corporate News & Highlights:
  • New highs for 8 stocks, with only 1 new low—demonstrates net strength.
  • ETF and growth-focused exposures featured heavily among both top gainers and losers—an indication of investor trend-chasing and possible institutional positioning shifts.

Top 5 Week-To-Date Gainers

Top 5 Week-To-Date Losers

• ETF volatility is in focus: MERGROWTH ETF (+46.41%) topped gainers while STANBICETF30 (-34.39%) and VETGRIF30 (-10.56%) featured among the worst performers, signaling sector/trading-style rotation or basket trades unwinding.
• High RSI readings (overbought) in several gainers—MERGROWTH (90.6), MECURE (93.3), MORISON (97.9)—show strong bullish momentum but also risk of short-term pullback. These may attract short-term traders but caution is advised.
• ETERNA’s deep loss coincided with an exceptionally low RSI (13.66), indicating possible oversold conditions and setup for technical rebound, but oversold can persist in the face of continued negative sentiment.
• Few high yielding stocks (DivYield > 4%) appear in this week’s top gainers, with PZ (4.59%), DANGSUGAR (4.27%)—indicative that investors are chasing price momentum rather than yield.

Momentum & Technical Insights

• Bullish Momentum:
  • Stocks like MERGROWTH, MECURE, MORISON exhibited RSI above 70, MACD positive, and 15DMA>50DMA—classic technical signals for overbought/bull momentum.
  • MTNN and JAPAULGOLD sustained strong momentum across price, RSI, and moving averages; MTNN also drew both retail and institutional trading interest, suggesting continued institutional accumulation.
• Bearish Momentum:
  • ETERNA’s RSI (13.66) is deeply oversold (below 30), with MACD negative—a mark of continued selling pressure and potentially a "falling knife.”
  • AFRIPRUD (-9.77% WTD, -46.90% YTD) is still trending lower with negative momentum, marking it as a potential longer-term laggard despite a decent dividend yield (1.27%).
• Volume Surprises & Unusual Activity:
  • Institutional activity dominated—contributing 79.08% of volume and 94.57% of traded value, despite making up only 35.65% of the trades. Notably, institutional money gravitated toward ACCESSCORP, ZENITHBANK, MTNN, DANGSUGAR, and NB.
  • Retail focus was similarly on MTNN, ACCESSCORP, and ZENITHBANK but at much lower value and volume, indicating these names are institutional bellwethers.
  • MTNN stands out for heavy participation (both retail and institutional)—potentially signaling sector leadership and broad investor confidence.

Sector and Index Performance

• NGXGROWTH (+20.99% WTD, +130.78% YTD) was the standout performer, indicating investor rotation and aggressive bidding for growth/innovation-focused equities. However, such strength could be prone to profit-taking after sharp rallies.
• NGXSOVBND (-2.02% WTD) and other value/dividend/bond proxies lagged, suggesting a risk-on environment, with yield seekers experiencing underperformance.
• Consumer Goods and Corporate Governance-focused (CG) indices also outperformed, reinforcing the breadth of the rally.
• Insurance continues its methodical advance, tracking the ASI closely.

Year-To-Date (YTD) Top 5 Gainers & Losers

• Several stocks like MECURE and MERGROWTH appeared in both top weekly and YTD gainers—reinforcing ongoing strong trends.
• AFRIPRUD stands out as a persistent underperformer—down 46.9% YTD and among the week’s worst names, despite a somewhat attractive dividend yield. Falling values plus a high PE (19.6) raises red flags for yield traps.
• CHELLARAM is unique: Though a weekly loser, its YTD gain is a whopping 256.8%, reflecting deep volatility and rapid time-specific re-ratings.

Market Activity & Flow: Retail vs Institutional Trading

• Institutional trades contributed the vast majority of total value and volume—they accounted for 79% of volumes traded but only a third (36%) of trade count, reflecting their preference for large block trades. This underpins movements in large cap and index names.
• Heavy overlap—MTNN, ACCESSCORP, and ZENITHBANK—are in both retail and institutional top lists, marking them as market anchors and liquid bellwethers.
• GTCO and UBA see significant retail action, while institutions additionally target DANGSUGAR and NB (Nigerian Breweries), likely driven by sector-specific news or valuations.
• Institutional presence in MTNN and ACCESSCORP—both also present among bullish technical names—suggests these stocks could continue to see relative outperformance, especially as their liquidity makes them prime vehicles for tactical allocation shifts.

Actionable Recommendations

• Opportunities: Look for pullbacks in bullish momentum names with high RSI but also fundamental/stable prospects (e.g., MTNN, JAPAULGOLD) for tactical entries, especially those aligning with institutional flows.
• Caution: Extreme gainers (e.g., ETFs up >40% in a week) are prone to profit taking and possible reversals; risk management is key.
• Dividend Yield: Few high yielders are in bullish momentum; yield chasers should vet for sustainability (avoid "yield traps" like AFRIPRUD with falling price and high PE).
• Rotation Watch: Persistent ETF and growth index volatility suggests sector/style rotation—investors should monitor liquidity and breadth for early signs of reversals.
• Watch for oversold opportunities in names like ETERNA with RSI below 30, but only after confirming a technical bottom.

Hidden Insights & Patterns

• Unusually synchronized momentum: Multiple ETFs at both leader and laggard ends suggest broader market thematic shifts—momentum trading is driving both surges and collapses.
• Growth names (NGXGROWTH Index) posted spectacular numbers (+131% YTD), but sharp swings may make risk-adjusted returns less attractive than headline numbers suggest. Tactical traders may need to be nimble.
• Institutional vs retail: Institutionals dominate the liquidity pool, but retail investors increasingly participate in core index names, offering secondary liquidity and reducing slippage.
• High RSI + High Institutional Activity = Watch for Exhaustion: Names like MECURE, MERGROWTH, and MORISON may soon confront profit-taking; use trailing stops or scale out after sharp run-ups.
• Rotation out of defensive/yield plays: The underperformance of bond, value, and dividend indices, despite rising yields in select equities, highlights investor preference for price appreciation over income this week.